What the week's housing news means for people who sell to builders.
PulteGroup built its third-quarter homes for $75 per square foot, down 5% from a year earlier, crediting procurement teams working with its trades and product suppliers, and its home-sale gross margin still fell to 24.8% from 26.2% as incentives rose to 10.4% of price. M/I Homes and NVR reported lower orders and thinner margins the same week, and Census put September new-home sales at 676,000, flat with August. Whirlpool and Simpson Manufacturing, meanwhile, reported price increases for this quarter and next year. The relief builders have already taken from suppliers and the increases suppliers have queued are likely to meet at the next agreement renewal.
The Rundown
PulteGroup's orders fell 6% as buyer traffic dropped 14%
Net new orders: 6,208, down 6%
Closings: 6,876, down 9%
Incentives: 10.4% of price, up from 8.9%
Gross margin: 24.8%, down from 26.2%
2026 closings outlook: 27,000 to 27,500
Buyer traffic: down 14% from a year earlier, 11% from the second quarter
Starts vs. sales: just over 6,500 started, 6,200 sold
Management said the slowdown continued into October. (PulteGroup Q3 release, PulteGroup Q3 call)
What this signals: Management said it will "tightly control our starts pace," so a quarter in which starts ran ahead of sales likely gives way to fewer starts this winter.
M/I Homes' contracts went from up 15% in July to down 16% in September
Contracts: 1,861, down 2%
Deliveries: 2,241, down 2%
Gross margin excluding charges: 21.3%, down 320 basis points
Homes in the field: 5,200, against 5,000 a year ago
Construction cost: flat with the second quarter
M/I attributed the margin decline to the higher cost of rate buydowns and lot costs. (M/I Homes Q3 release, M/I Homes Q3 call)
What this signals: M/I said it has "reduced starts a little bit," so the September drop is likely to reach its trade base through fewer starts in the coming quarter.
NVR's gross margin fell to 18.3% from 21.0%
New orders: 4,391, down 7%
Settlements: 5,268, down 7%
Cancellation rate: 21.0%, up from 19.4%
Lots controlled: 185,300, up from 175,300
NVR attributed the margin decline to higher lot costs and "pricing pressure due to continued affordability challenges and weak consumer sentiment." (NVR Q3 release)
What this signals: NVR's lot count rising while orders fall means it is still adding to its pipeline.
September new-home sales held at 676,000 while builders shifted unsold stock toward homes not yet started
Sales: 676,000 annual rate, 0.6% below August and 5.3% below a year earlier
Average price: $472,800, down 6.7% from a year earlier
Homes for sale: 476,000
For sale, not yet started: 115,000, up from 103,000
For sale, under construction: 250,000, down from 262,000
For sale, completed: 111,000, down from 122,000
Census flags both sales changes as statistically indistinguishable from zero. (Census)
What this signals: More of builders' unsold inventory sitting at the not-yet-started stage likely means fewer homes moving into construction until buyers sign.
Treasury set an 18-month window for investors buying new build-to-rent homes
Under proposed rules for the ban on large investors buying single-family homes, which takes effect January 7, 2027, an investor controlling 350 or more homes could still buy a new home for rent if it was never owner-occupied, is purchased within 18 months of its certificate of occupancy, and is first occupied by renters; comments close November 23. (Federal Register)
What this signals: Builders building rental communities for large investors would likely need to time their sales to that 18-month clock.
Whirlpool's North American sales fell 8.3% ahead of a 7% price increase
North American net sales: $2.50 billion, down 8.3%
North American EBIT margin: 3.0%, down from 4.9%
Price increase: 7%, effective in the fourth quarter
Whirlpool said the sales decline was "driven by soft industry demand." On its call, management said builder pricing runs on annual or national contracts quoted well in advance and moves the same way as retail pricing, only later. (Whirlpool Q3 release, Whirlpool Q3 call)
What this signals: Builder appliance packages priced under existing contracts likely see this increase at their next quote or renewal rather than this quarter.
Simpson's North American sales rose 3.8%, mostly on price
North American net sales were $502.0 million, "primarily due to price increases and higher unit sales volumes," with segment gross margin at 48.4% against 48.7%; management said it expects "additional pricing actions" for 2027. (Simpson Q3 release)
What this signals: A connector and fastener increase early next year arrives as builders are still pressing for lower build costs.
Watsco's residential equipment sales rose 7%, with units up 5%
Revenue: $2.22 billion, up 7%
Residential equipment sales: up 7%, with units up 5% and average selling price up 2%
Gross margin: 26.4%, down from 27.5%
Watsco attributed the margin decline in part to the mix between replacement and residential new construction and to smaller OEM price increases this year than last. (Watsco Q3 release)
What this signals: Smaller OEM price increases showing up as lower distributor margin likely mean less room for HVAC equipment pricing this year than last.
Sherwin-Williams expects "muted demand" into 2027
Paint Stores Group sales rose 4.7%, with selling prices up by a mid-single-digit percentage and residential repaint up mid-single digits; the release did not address new residential. (Sherwin-Williams Q3 release)
What this signals: Sherwin-Williams is getting price in repaint, and its release gives no read on new residential volume or pricing.
The 30-year rate eased to 7.32%
Freddie Mac's average 30-year fixed rate fell from 7.40% to 7.32% in the week of October 22, its first weekly decline since August, after a climb from 6.71% on September 3. (Freddie Mac)
What this signals: One weekly decline does not yet reverse the September move PulteGroup said kept first-time buyers out of its communities.
Deep Dive: The relief is already in the cost line
Builders have already taken price relief from their suppliers. PulteGroup's $75 per square foot is down 5% from a year ago, and management credited its national and divisional procurement teams "working with our trades and product suppliers." Zelman counted build-cost cuts of 5% to 7% at D.R. Horton, Meritage, and Lennar after the second quarter. The relief has not stopped the margin decline: PulteGroup's third-quarter gross margin has gone from 29.5% in 2023 to 28.8%, 26.2%, and now 24.8%, with incentives at 10.4% of price and starts being held back. PulteGroup's CEO told analysts that cost control "will get harder and harder" in "an inflationary environment, which we seem to clearly be back in." (PulteGroup Q3 call, PulteGroup Q3 slides, Zelman)
Supplier pricing is moving up while builder pricing lags. Whirlpool's 7% increase lands this quarter, and its management described builder price moves as following retail, later, under annual or national contracts. Owens Corning said on its August call that it had "absorbed quite a bit of inflation" in residential insulation over a couple of years without price traction, while seeing "solid realization" on increases in roofing, which it says is more than 80% repair and replacement. This week's releases from Whirlpool, Simpson, Watsco, and Sherwin-Williams give no margin by channel, so the gap between what a builder agreement earns and what replacement or repair business earns does not show up in them. (Whirlpool Q3 call, Owens Corning Q2 call)
That gap likely decides how long relief lasts. Relief given on the assumption of a recovery is likely harder to defend when PulteGroup, M/I, and NVR all reported lower gross margins than a year ago, and a manufacturer whose builder business earns well below its replacement business is more likely to put resources toward the higher-margin channel. An agreement up for renewal or RFP now may also face less appetite from supplier leadership for terms that lock in pricing for several years. The need to keep factory lines loaded and factory employment steady can work against that, and so can sharing the cost of relief with a distribution partner. How long suppliers can keep giving relief is the open question.
On the Radar
HUD's manufactured housing consensus committee finishes its meeting on chassis-free homes October 28, after an October 22 executive order created a HUD and FHFA task force on manufactured housing; Masco, Meritage, Century, and Green Brick report October 28, the day the Fed decides on rates; and D.R. Horton, Builders FirstSource, Carrier, and Trane report October 29. (White House, Federal Register MHCC notice)
That's the week, measured. If someone forwarded you this, get it in your inbox every Tuesday — hit the button below to subscribe.
Sources
PulteGroup Q3 release: PulteGroup, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1, October 22, 2026 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000822416/000082241626000041/ex991earningspr9302026.htm
PulteGroup Q3 call: PulteGroup third quarter 2026 earnings call, October 22, 2026 — https://www.earningswhispers.com/transcript/PHM/Q32026
M/I Homes Q3 release: M/I Homes, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1, October 21, 2026 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/799292/000079929226000030/exhibit991earningspressrel.htm
M/I Homes Q3 call: M/I Homes third quarter 2026 earnings call, October 21, 2026 — https://www.earningswhispers.com/transcript/MHO/Q32026
NVR Q3 release: NVR, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1, October 22, 2026 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000906163/000090616326000099/q32026ex991_earningsrelease.htm
Census: Monthly New Residential Sales, September 2026, October 27, 2026 — https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales_202609.pdf
Federal Register: Department of the Treasury, 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act Prohibition on Large Institutional Investor Purchases of Single-Family Homes, proposed rule, October 23, 2026 — https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/10/23/2026-21675/21st-century-road-to-housing-act-prohibition-on-large-institutional-investor-purchases-of-single-family-homes
Whirlpool Q3 release: Whirlpool, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1, October 26, 2026 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000106640/000010664026000070/exhibit991pressrelease0930.htm
Whirlpool Q3 call: Whirlpool third quarter 2026 earnings call, October 27, 2026 — https://gloom.sh/stocks/whr/transcripts/q3-2026
Simpson Q3 release: Simpson Manufacturing, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1, October 26, 2026 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000920371/000162828026067288/q32026ex991earningsrelease.htm
Watsco Q3 release: Watsco, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1, October 27, 2026 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000105016/000119312526432680/wso-ex99_1.htm
Sherwin-Williams Q3 release: Sherwin-Williams, third quarter 2026 results, October 27, 2026 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000089800/000008980026000054/shwearningsrelease3q2026.htm
Freddie Mac: Primary Mortgage Market Survey, history file, October 22, 2026 — https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/docs/PMMS_history.csv
PulteGroup Q3 slides: PulteGroup third quarter 2026 webcast slides, October 22, 2026 — https://s204.q4cdn.com/680895981/files/doc_earnings/2026/q3/presentation/Q3-2026-Webcast-Slides.pdf
Zelman: "Public Homebuilder Earnings Show Margin Resilience," Zelman Insights, August 3, 2026 — https://www.zelmanassociates.com/resources/zelman-insights/2026-08/public-homebuilder-earnings-show-margin-resilience
Owens Corning Q2 call: Owens Corning second quarter 2026 earnings call, August 5, 2026 — https://www.earningswhispers.com/transcript/OC/Q22026
White House: Fact sheet, "President Donald J. Trump Decreases Housing Costs for Americans," October 22, 2026 — https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2026/10/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-decreases-housing-costs-for-americans/
Federal Register MHCC notice: Notice of Federal Advisory Committee Meeting, Manufactured Housing Consensus Committee, October 14, 2026 — https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/10/14/2026-20953/notice-of-federal-advisory-committee-meeting-manufactured-housing-consensus-committee-mhcc
Compiled from publicly available reporting as of October 27, 2026. Figures are as reported by the cited sources and subject to revision. Starts & Specs is provided for general informational purposes only. Nothing in it is financial, investment, legal, or business advice, or a recommendation to take or refrain from any action; any analysis reflects the author's reading of public information and may be wrong. Readers should independently verify figures and make their own decisions.