What the week's housing news means for people who sell to builders.

D.R. Horton's stick-and-brick cost per square foot rose 1% from the prior quarter after falling 4% over its fiscal year, and Meritage said modest cost increases could reach its margins over the next several quarters. The same week, A. O. Smith, Carrier, and Lennox described price increases for December and 2027, and Builders FirstSource said any real price reset with builders comes at year-end. The volume underneath is still falling: D.R. Horton started 10% fewer homes than a year earlier and guided its next quarter's closings about 10% lower. When builders bring margin complaints to their suppliers, a division's complaint about price and the corporate office's complaint about margin may not be about the same number.

The Rundown

D.R. Horton started 10% fewer homes and guided next quarter's closings about 10% lower

  • Homes started: 13,100 in its fiscal fourth quarter, which ended in September, down 10% from a year earlier

  • Net orders: 18,619, down 7%, on 10% more average active selling communities

  • Stick-and-brick cost per square foot: up 1% from the prior quarter, down 4% for the fiscal year

  • Home sales gross margin: 19.5%, guided to 18.0% to 18.5% for the quarter ending in December

  • Closings guidance: 15,500 to 16,500 for the quarter ending in December, against 17,818 a year earlier, and 79,000 to 84,000 for the fiscal year ending September 2027

D.R. Horton expects stick-and-brick costs to be flat to slightly up next quarter, and its presentation lists about 20 exclusive national supplier agreements covering flooring, paint, door hardware, and more. (D.R. Horton Q4 release, D.R. Horton Q4 presentation, D.R. Horton Q4 call)

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What this signals: D.R. Horton's cost line has turned up as its unit count falls, so supplier terms coming up at contract end are likely negotiated on fewer homes and a rising cost per foot.

Meritage started 12% more homes than a year ago and is cutting starts this quarter

  • Net orders: 3,083, down 15%

  • Closings: 3,187, down 14%

  • Home closing gross margin: 17.4%, from 19.1%

  • Spec starts: 3,442, up 12% from a year earlier and down 12% from the second quarter

  • Direct cost per square foot: down nearly 5% from a year earlier, about 14 straight quarters of savings

Meritage's CFO said its procurement team "has successfully pushed back on price increases to date" but that "tariffs, along with higher oil-based materials and transportation costs, are increasingly pressuring the supply chain," and the CEO said it is "adjusting our starts in Q4." Meritage gave no fourth-quarter guidance. (Meritage Q3 release, Meritage Q3 call)

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What this signals: Builder requests for price relief typically rest on a forecast of more closings; with orders down 15% and no guidance, that case is weaker, and suppliers are unlikely to keep adding incentives or price savings without the volume.

Century cut its full-year delivery guidance and LGI narrowed its closings range

  • Century 2026 deliveries guidance: 9,350 to 9,650, from 9,750 to 10,500

  • Century homebuilding gross margin: 15.0%, from 17.9% a year earlier

  • LGI 2026 closings guidance: 4,600 to 4,800

  • LGI third-quarter closings: 1,222, up 10.4%

Century said its direct construction costs fell from the prior quarter and pointed to "the impact of increased mortgage rates on our orders and deliveries." LGI said its revised outlook "reflects slower sales activity in the quarter as affordability pressures continued to weigh on demand." (Century Q3 release, LGI Q3 release)

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What this signals: Both builders now expect fewer closings this year than they did in the summer, so fourth-quarter deliveries are likely coming in at the low end of the plans suppliers were given.

Dream Finders set out a $100 million savings target for Beazer

Dream Finders' first report since closing Beazer on Oct. 20 covers a quarter before the deal, with gross margin at 14.9% from 17.5%; it said it has a "detailed integration plan" for "the $100 million cost savings we outlined for Beazer" and will end land deals that do not meet its return thresholds. (Dream Finders Q3 release)

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What this signals: The release does not mention Beazer's brands, its energy program, or purchasing, so how the savings target reaches Beazer's vendors is not yet on the record.

Green Brick's incentives reached 11% of new orders

  • Homebuilding gross margin: 28.0%, from 32.1%

  • Average sales price of homes closed: $446,700, down 12.1%

  • Incentives: 11% on new orders

Green Brick said it continues "to respond to deteriorating market conditions to maintain sales pace." (Green Brick Q3 release)

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What this signals: Green Brick said it has largely locked in its lot costs, which likely points its margin decline at price and incentives.

Builders FirstSource's single-family sales fell 6.2% as it bought a New Mexico dealer

  • Net sales: $3.85 billion, down 2.2%

  • Single-family core organic sales: down 6.2%

  • Gross margin: 27.8%, down 260 basis points

  • Facilities consolidated: 45 this year, 100 over three years

Builders FirstSource said there is "extra capacity that we are still digesting," and this week it said it had acquired L&P Building Supply of Las Cruces, N.M., which supplies lumber, building materials, trusses, and wall panels in southern New Mexico and El Paso. (Builders FirstSource Q3 release, Builders FirstSource Q3 call, Building Products Digest)

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What this signals: Its outlook assumes single-family starts fall nearly 7% this year, with 2027 guidance due in February.

Lennox's residential margin fell 490 basis points as it works to win back new construction

  • Home Comfort Solutions revenue: $937 million, up 3%

  • Segment profit: down 18%

  • Segment margin: 18.7%, down 490 basis points

Chief executive Alok Maskara said "we have talked in the past about our share loss in RNC," said that loss will be lapping itself within the next quarter or so, and said Lennox is working with national accounts and new-construction customers to lower their "joint cost to serve." (Lennox Q3 release, Lennox Q3 call)

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What this signals: Lennox said it "could not stick a midyear price increase" and plans a 2027 increase that it said "works better for our national accounts," which likely means pricing new construction to win share back.

West Fraser is indefinitely curtailing an OSB mill and a lumber mill

West Fraser is curtailing its Huguley OSB mill in Lanett, Ala. (about 500 million square feet a year, 3/8-inch basis) and its Leola, Ark. mill (225 million board feet of southern yellow pine) in the fourth quarter, citing "continued weakness in demand for wood products used in new home construction and repair and renovation applications." (West Fraser Q3 release)

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What this signals: West Fraser said it has "no near-term visibility on an improvement in demand" and is taking capacity out rather than running mills for a recovery.

Spending on new single-family construction was flat in September

  • New single-family, September: $403.4 billion annual rate, unchanged from August

  • New single-family, year over year: down 2.4%

  • New single-family, January through September: down 4.8%

  • Private residential, September: $848.8 billion, down 5.5% from August

Census released the September estimates on Nov. 2. (Census)

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What this signals: The 5.5% residential decline came from improvement spending; new single-family held flat on the month and is still 4.8% below last year's pace.

The Fed held rates and the 30-year mortgage rate eased to 7.24%

The Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on Oct. 28, with two members dissenting in favor of a hike, and Freddie Mac's 30-year average fell to 7.24% on Oct. 29 from 7.32%, its second weekly decline from 7.40%. (Federal Reserve, Freddie Mac)

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What this signals: Rates eased but stayed above 7%, and D.R. Horton, Century, and LGI each named rates or affordability as the pressure on this quarter's sales.

An executive order set a 180-day review of factory-built housing

The order, published Oct. 28, creates a HUD and FHFA task force with USDA, Commerce, and VA to recommend within 180 days how to support factory-built and modular housing and whether to tie federal grants to standardized permitting. (Federal Register)

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What this signals: The text does not address building codes, energy codes, materials, or tariffs, and its first deliverable is recommendations due around late April.

Price Increases This Week

A. O. Smith said on its Oct. 29 call that it had announced an additional increase on most of its water heaters, effective in December, citing steel and freight costs.

Company

Products Affected

Increase

Effective

Source

A. O. Smith

Most water heater products

Up to 9.5%

December 2026

A. O. Smith Q3 call

ACHR News publishes a full monthly HVAC price-increase roundup; link in Sources.

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What this signals: A. O. Smith said "double-digit steel and freight increases" cut its North America earnings by $18 million in the quarter.

Deep Dive: Who sees the rebate

This week's reports set up the 2027 price conversation from both sides. D.R. Horton's stick-and-brick cost is rising again and Meritage expects modest increases, while A. O. Smith, Carrier, and Lennox described increases for December and 2027; Carrier said its announced increases in the Americas run "up to 10%" after it realized low-single-digit price this year against the mid-single digits it expected. Builders FirstSource's chief executive said "the real reset, if there is any," with builders happens "at year-end and into the beginning of the year," in negotiations that are "multilateral," and its outlook assumes it gives up "a little" price. (Carrier Q3 call, Builders FirstSource Q3 call)

D.R. Horton and Meritage both name supplier rebates in their annual reports, and Meritage says it negotiates them "on behalf of our subcontractors," but neither filing says whether its divisions see those dollars on the house. A division's price complaint is likely about the installer's invoice, turnkey or not, and through two-step distribution a manufacturer can have little say over that bid. So a division can be unhappy with price on its local P&L while the corporate customer has already been made whole through rebates or other incentives. (D.R. Horton 10-K, Meritage 10-K)

How much of an increase a supplier can carry likely depends on its unit of measure, its margin, how much of its business sells into replacement, and how committed it is to new construction. Branded, visible products with a large add-on replacement business, such as water heaters, HVAC, and roofing, may be able to carry more of an increase in other channels, and an announced figure may be a blended channel number that some builder agreements could cap or delay. Lennox, after losing share in new construction, is moving to a 2027 increase it says works better for national accounts, and Builders FirstSource, with single-family sales down 6.2%, expects to give some price back.

On the Radar

Owens Corning reports Wednesday, Nov. 4, and JELD-WEN reports after today's close; Dream Finders' early tender deadline on its exchange offer for Beazer's notes is Nov. 4, and comments on Treasury's institutional-investor purchase rule close Nov. 23.

That's the week, measured. If someone forwarded you this, get it in your inbox every Tuesday — hit the button below to subscribe.

Sources

  1. D.R. Horton Q4 release: D.R. Horton fiscal fourth quarter 2026 earnings release, October 29, 2026 — https://investor.drhorton.com/news-and-events/press-releases/2026/10-29-2026-103058484

  2. D.R. Horton Q4 presentation: D.R. Horton Q4 fiscal 2026 investor presentation, October 29, 2026 — https://investor.drhorton.com/~/media/Files/D/D-R-Horton-IR/reports-and-presentations/presentations/q4-2026-investor-presentation.pdf

  3. D.R. Horton Q4 call: D.R. Horton fiscal fourth quarter 2026 earnings call, October 29, 2026 — https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/dhi/transcripts/

  4. Meritage Q3 release: Meritage Homes, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1, October 28, 2026 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/833079/000083307926000133/mth20260930earningsrelease.htm

  5. Meritage Q3 call: Meritage Homes third quarter 2026 analyst call and slides, October 29, 2026 — https://investors.meritagehomes.com/

  6. Century Q3 release: Century Communities, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1, October 28, 2026 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001576940/000157694026000069/ccs-20261028xex99_1.htm

  7. LGI Q3 release: LGI Homes, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1, November 3, 2026 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1580670/000158067026000085/a09302026ex991earningsrele.htm

  8. Dream Finders Q3 release: Dream Finders Homes, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1, October 29, 2026 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001825088/000162828026068063/dfh-q32026xer.htm

  9. Green Brick Q3 release: Green Brick Partners, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1, October 28, 2026 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001373670/000162828026067938/a2q32026ex99earningsrelease.htm

  10. Builders FirstSource Q3 release: Builders FirstSource, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1, October 29, 2026 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001316835/000119312526436795/bldr-ex99_1.htm

  11. Builders FirstSource Q3 call: Builders FirstSource third quarter 2026 earnings call, October 29, 2026 — https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/10/29/builders-firstsource-bldr-q3-2026-earnings-call-transcript/

  12. Building Products Digest: "Builders FirstSource acquires L&P of New Mexico," November 3, 2026 — https://www.building-products.com/builders-firstsource-acquires-l-p-of-new-mexico/

  13. Lennox Q3 release: Lennox, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1, October 28, 2026 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001069202/000106920226000094/lii-20260930xexx991pressre.htm

  14. Lennox Q3 call: Lennox third quarter 2026 earnings call, October 28, 2026 — https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/10/28/lennox-lii-q3-2026-earnings-call-transcript/

  15. West Fraser Q3 release: West Fraser third quarter 2026 results and indefinite curtailments, October 28, 2026 — https://www.cantechletter.com/newswires/west-fraser-announces-third-quarter-2026-results-and-indefinite-curtailments-in-its-osb-and-lumber-portfolios/

  16. Census: Monthly Construction Spending, September 2026 (CB26-176), November 2, 2026 — https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/pdf/release.pdf

  17. Federal Reserve: FOMC statement, October 28, 2026 — https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm

  18. Freddie Mac: Primary Mortgage Market Survey history, October 29, 2026 — https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/docs/PMMS_history.csv

  19. Federal Register: Executive Order 14438, "Decreasing Housing Costs for the American People," October 28, 2026 — https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/10/28/2026-22051/decreasing-housing-costs-for-the-american-people

  20. A. O. Smith Q3 call: A. O. Smith third quarter 2026 earnings call, October 29, 2026 — https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/10/29/a-o-smith-aos-q3-2026-earnings-call-transcript/

  21. ACHR News: "HVAC Price Increase List: October 2026," October 7, 2026 — https://www.achrnews.com/articles/166764-hvac-price-increase-list-october-2026

  22. Carrier Q3 call: Carrier third quarter 2026 earnings call, October 29, 2026 — https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/10/29/carrier-carr-q3-2026-earnings-call-transcript/

  23. D.R. Horton 10-K: D.R. Horton annual report for fiscal 2025, November 19, 2025 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/882184/000088218425000081/dhi-20250930.htm

  24. Meritage 10-K: Meritage Homes annual report for 2025, February 13, 2026 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/833079/000083307926000010/mth-20251231.htm

Compiled from publicly available reporting as of November 3, 2026. Figures are as reported by the cited sources and subject to revision. Starts & Specs is provided for general informational purposes only. Nothing in it is financial, investment, legal, or business advice, or a recommendation to take or refrain from any action; any analysis reflects the author's reading of public information and may be wrong. Readers should independently verify figures and make their own decisions.